Tassi Bassi, Per Quanto Ancora?

CAMBRIDGE – Per quanto potranno durare gli attuali tassi di interesse delle valute più importanti scesi a livelli record? I tassi di interesse decennali degli Stati Uniti, Gran Bretagna e Germania si aggirano tutti intorno alla soglia una volta impensabile del 1.5%. In Giappone, il tasso decennale è scivolato al di sotto del 8%. Apparentemente, gli investitori mondiali sono ben disposti ad accettare questi tassi straordinariamente bassi, anche se sembra che non siano in grado di compensare la prevista inflazione. In effetti, il tasso sui titoli del Tesoro americani, fino a 15 anni , indicizzati all’inflazione (i cosiddetti “TIPS” – Treasury Inflaction Protected Securities) adesso è negativo.

Questa situazione straordinaria è stabile? Certamente, a brevissimo termine; anzi, i tassi di interesse potrebbero ancora diminuire ulteriormente. Sul lungo periodo, tuttavia, questa situazione non è assolutamente stabile.

Alla base degli odierni bassi rendimenti vi sono tre fattori principali. Innanzitutto, c’è “l’eccesso di risparmi globali”, un’idea resa di dominio pubblico dall’attuale Presidente della Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, in un discorso del 2005. Per varie ragioni, i risparmiatori sono in aumento in molte aree del mondo. In Germania e Giappone, gli anziani hanno bisogno di risparmiare per il pensionamento. In Cina, il governo detiene obbligazioni sicure come copertura contro una futura crisi bancaria e, ovviamente, come effetto secondario degli sforzi volti a stabilizzare il tasso di cambio.

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