低利率能维持多久?

美国剑桥—当前创纪录低水平的主要货币利率可以维持多久?美国、英国和德国十年期均在以前不可想象的1.5%水平徘徊。在日本,十年期利率已经降至0.8%以下。全球投资者显然愿意接受超低利率,及时这无法补偿预期通胀。事实上,美国通胀调整国债(即所谓的“TIPS”,最高15年)利率目前正处于负水平。

这一反常状态稳定吗?在极短的短期,答案是肯定的;事实上,利率还可以进一步下降。但在较长时期,这一状态显然是不稳定的。

三大因素导致了当前的低收益率。首先,最重要的是,存在“全球储蓄过剩”。这一概念由美联储现任主席伯南克在2005年的一次演讲中提出。出于多种原因,储蓄者在诸多地区占据了主导地位。在德国和日本,老龄化人口需要储蓄应对退休。在中国,政府持有安全债券作为对冲未来银行危机的手段,当然,这也是稳定汇率的副产品。

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