Cómo alimenta Japón la inestabilidad financiera global

Durante los últimos años se ha puesto mucha atención al papel que desempeña el superávit comercial de China en la creación de los desequilibrios financieros globales actuales. Pero se ha dado muy poca consideración a la contribución de la política japonesa de tasas de interés cercanas a cero a estos trastornos. Puesto que la incertidumbre financiera está aumentando, es tiempo de que Japón cambie de rumbo.

La política de Japón de tasas de interés muy bajas inició en los años 1990 para poner un piso a la economía luego del estallido de la burbuja de los precios de los activos. Sin embargo, con el paso del tiempo esas tasas de interés muy bajas han fomentado un comercio de divisas altamente especulativo: los especuladores piden préstamos en yenes a tasas de interés bajas y después compran dólares y otras divisas para invertirlas en activos con mayores rendimientos en otros lugares.

Hay dos características clave de ese comercio de divisas. En primer lugar, contribuye a la depreciación del yen y la apreciación del dólar a medida que los especuladores abandonan el yen. En segundo lugar, incrementa la demanda global de activos, lo que genera una inflación en los precios de esos activos.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in

  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now