Wie Japan die Instabilität auf den globalen Finanzmärkten schürt

In den letzten Jahren galt das allgemeine Interesse vor allem dem Thema, welche Rolle der chinesische Leistungsbilanzüberschuss bei der Entstehung der heutigen weltweiten Finanzungleichgewichte spielt. Inwieweit die japanische Niedrigstzinspolitik zu diesen Ungleichgewichten beiträgt, wurde weniger hinterfragt. Nachdem die globale Finanzunsicherheit steigt, ist es Zeit für einen japanischen Kurswechsel.

Japan führte seine Politik der extrem niedrigen Zinsen in den 1990er Jahren ein, um seiner Wirtschaft nach dem Platzen der Vermögenspreisblase wieder ein Fundament zu geben. Mit der Zeit allerdings haben diese Niedrigstzinsen hochspekulative Finanzgeschäfte gefördert, nämlich den „Carry-Trade“. Dabei nehmen Spekulanten Yen-Kredite zu niedrigen Zinssätzen auf, kaufen dafür Dollars und andere Devisen, die wiederum anderswo in ertragreicheren Investitionsformen angelegt werden.

Dieser Carry-Trade weist zwei charakteristische Merkmale auf. Erstens trägt er zur Abwertung des Yen und zur Aufwertung des Dollar bei, da die Carry Traders aus dem Yen aussteigen. Zweitens erhöht sich dadurch die globale Nachfrage nach Anlagen, wodurch es wiederum zu einer Vermögenspreisinflation kommt.

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