日本怎样激化了全球金融的不稳定

在过去几年里,许多人关注的是中国的贸易顺差怎样导致了今天全球金融的不平衡。但是很少有人去关注日本近乎为零的利率对金融不平衡的影响。在全球金融的不确定性越来越大的时候,现在是日本改弦更张的时候了。

日本超低的利率政策是在二十世纪九十年代开始实行的。当时日本的房地产泡沫破裂后,政府期望通过实行超低的利率来避免经济的崩溃。然而,随着时间的推移,这些超低的利率促进了高度投机的金融“套利”交易,也就是投机商以超低的利率贷来日元用来购买美元或其他货币,然后把这些货币投资到其他高收益的资产上。

这种套利交易有两个重要的特征。一是它促使了日元的贬值和美元的升值,因为从是套利交易需要不断地把日元兑换出去;二是它增大全球资产需求,引发资产价格飞涨。

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