كيف تغذي اليابان عدم الاستقرار المالي العالمي

طيلة الأعوام العديدة الماضية كان القدر الأعظم من الاهتمام مركزاً على الدور الذي يلعبه الفائض التجاري الصيني في خلق حالة اختلال التوازن المالي التي يعاني منها العالم اليوم. إلا أن قدراً ضئيلاً من الاهتمام كان موجهاً إلى الدور الذي تلعبه السياسة اليابانية في تخفيض أسعار الفائدة إلى الصفر تقريباً، ومدى إسهام هذه السياسة في اختلال التوازن. لقد بات لزاماً على اليابان أن تغير مسارها اليوم، مع تصاعد الشكوك المالية على مستوى العالم.

بدأت سياسة تخفيض أسعار الفائدة على هذا النحو المبالغ فيه أثناء فترة التسعينيات بهدف تثبيت أقدام الاقتصاد الياباني في أعقاب انفجار فقاعة أسعار الأصول. إلا أن أسعار الفائدة البالغة الانخفاض هذه أدت مع الوقت إلى تعزيز نوع من تجارة الحمل المالية التي تعتمد على المضاربة إلى حد هائل: حيث يقترض المضاربون الين بأسعار فائدة منخفضة ثم يشترون دولارات وعملات أخرى تستثمر في أصول ذات عائدات أعلى في أماكن أخرى.

ويشتمل هذا النوع من تجارة المضاربة على مظهرين أساسيين. الأول أنه يساهم في تخفيض قيمة الين وارتفاع قيمة الدولار مع تحول المضاربين بعيداً عن الين. والثاني أنها تزيد من الطلب على الأصول العالمية، فيتولد عن ذلك التضخم في أسعار الأصول.

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