Потерпели ли провал меры строгой экономии в Европе?

БРЮССЕЛЬ – Несмотря на то, что многие европейские правительства объявили о сокращении расходов и повышении налогов, их соотношения долг/ВВП продолжают ухудшаться. Выходит, если целью экономии было снижение уровня долгов, ее критики правы: затягивание финансовых поясов не удалось. Однако целью жесткой экономии была не только стабилизация долговых коэффициентов.

На самом деле, в некоторых случаях меры строгой экономии работают так, как их преподносят. Во время глобальной рецессии 2009 года дефицит бюджета Германии временно увеличился на 2,5 процентных пункта ВВП; последующее быстрое сокращение дефицита не оказало существенного негативного влияния на экономический рост. Таким образом, можно сократить дефицит и удержать соотношение долг/ВВП ‑ при условии что экономика не начинает с большими дисбалансами, а финансовая система работает нормально. Очевидно, что страны на периферии еврозоны не отвечают этим условиям.

Страны, чьи правительства либо потеряли доступ к нормальному рыночному финансированию (например, Греция, Ирландия и Португалия), либо столкнулись с очень высокими премиями за риск (например, Италия и Испания в 2011-2012 годы), просто не имеют выбора: они должны сократить свои расходы или получить финансирование от некоторых официальных организаций, таких как Международный валютный фонд или Европейский стабилизационный механизм (ESM). Однако официальное иностранное финансирование всегда будет проводиться на условиях кредиторов ‑ и кредиторы не видят причин для финансирования текущих расходов на уровнях, которые ранее привели страну к беде.

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