L’Asia e i “consumatori zombie” americani

NEW HAVEN – L’Asia ha bisogno di un nuovo consumatore di riferimento. Una generazione post-crisi di “consumatori zombie” americani probabilmente indebolirà la crescita dei consumi globali nei prossimi anni. Ciò significa che in questa fase di sviluppo l’Asia, trainata dall’export, non ha altra scelta che rivolgersi all’interno e affidarsi ai suoi 3,5 miliardi di consumatori.

Certo, non è la prima volta che l’Asia deve fare i conti con un “morto economico che cammina”. Gli zombie aziendali giapponesi sono stati l’epicentro del primo “decennio perduto” degli anni 90. Le società sclerotiche furono salvate dalle linee di credito offerte dai loro zaibatsu (simili a partner bancari), ritardando il loro inevitabile fallimento e perpetuando inefficienze e disincentivi che portarono la produttività giapponese a un collasso post-bolla.

In modo analogo, gli aiuti alle banche avvenuti in Occidente, durante la crisi del 2008-2009, hanno creato degli “zombie”. Da Wall Street ad AIG passando per Detroit, gli Usa si sono mossi con rapidità per salvare i giganti societari che altrimenti sarebbero falliti. La Gran Bretagna e l’Europa hanno fatto lo stesso, lanciando ancore di salvataggio a RBS, HBOS-Lloyds, Fortis, Hypo Real Estate e altri. In Occidente, la classica scusa era “too big to fail”, cioè “troppo grandi per fallire”. Cosa cambia tra questa situazione e quella avvenuta in Giappone quasi 20 anni fa?

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