Wie zuverlässig sind Ihre Lieblingsexperten?

Täglich bombardieren uns Experten mit ihren Ansichten zu Themen wie den irakischen Aufständischen, den bolivianischen Cocabauern, den Notenbankern von der EZB oder dem nordkoreanischen Politbüro. Aber wie viel Vertrauen sollten wir in solche Expertenmeinungen setzen?

Die optimistische Ansicht besagt, dass, solange ein intensiver Wettbewerb zwischen den Anbietern von Expertise um die Aufmerksamkeit urteilsfähiger Kunden (der Medien) herrscht, die Marktmechanismen schon für die nötige Qualität sorgen werden. Experten, die es auf die Meinungsseiten der Zeitungen oder ins Fernsehen oder Radio geschafft hätten, müssten eine hohe Treffsicherheit aufweisen; andernfalls hätte man sie ausgesondert.

Skeptiker allerdings warnen, dass die Massenmedien diktieren, welchen Kommentatoren wir zuhören, – und weniger an seriöser Debatte interessiert seien als daran, beliebte Vorurteile zu bedienen. Infolgedessen könnte die Berühmtheit der Kommentatoren mit ihrer langfristigen Treffgenauigkeit statt auf positive auf negative Weise korrelieren.

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