您所宠爱的专家准确度到底有多大?

每天,专家们都对伊拉克叛乱、玻利维亚古柯种植、欧洲央行和北朝鲜政治局等各种各样的问题发表高见,但我们对他们的意见到底应该相信多少?

乐观的看法是只要那些兜售专长的人为赢得有识之士(即大众传媒)的注意而拼命竞争,那么市场机制就一定能够控制质量。在报纸、电视和收音机上发表评论的专家必须有良好的历史记录,否则的话就会被无情地淘汰。

但持怀疑态度的人警告说大众传媒决定着我们能听到些什么,与进行逻辑辩论相比,它们更愿意迎合大众固有的偏见。因此,某位专家的声誉高低可能与其长期观点的正确与否成反比、而不是正比关系。

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