Desempleo incurable

BERKELEY - Por muy mala que uno piense que sea la actual situación de la economía mundial en cuanto al ciclo económico, ese es solo uno de los cristales con que se puede mirar el tema. En términos globales de esperanza de vida, riqueza total y nivel tecnológico, las perspectivas de crecimiento de las economías emergentes y la distribución general del ingreso, el panorama luce bastante bien. Sin embargo, en otros aspectos, como el calentamiento global o la desigualdad del ingreso y sus efectos sobre la solidaridad social dentro de los países, la cosa pinta definitivamente mal.

Incluso si se mira desde el punto de vista del ciclo económico, la situación ha sido mucho peor en el pasado. Piénsese en la Gran Depresión y las consecuencias de la incapacidad de las economías de mercado de ese entonces de levantarse por su cuenta, debido a la carga que les significaba el desempleo de larga duración.

Si bien no hemos llegado a ese punto, la Gran Depresión no deja de venir muy al caso, ya que es cada vez más probable que el desempleo de larga duración acabe por convertirse en un obstáculo similar para la recuperación dentro de los dos años que se avecinan.

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