La disoccupazione senza speranza

BERKELEY – Per quanto si possano vedere negativamente le condizioni attuali dell’economia in termini di ciclo economico, questa è solo una delle lenti attraverso cui guardare il mondo. In termini di aspettativa di vita globale, di ricchezza complessiva del mondo, di livello tecnologico globale, di prospettive di crescita per le economie emergenti e di distribuzione del reddito mondiale, le cose sembrano andare piuttosto bene, mentre hanno un brutto aspetto relativamente ad ancora altre dimensioni – per esempio, per quanto riguarda il riscaldamento globale o la diseguaglianza del reddito nazionale ed i suoi effetti sulla solidarietà sociale dei paesi.

Anche riguardo alla questione dl ciclo economico, le condizioni sono state ben peggiori nel passato di quanto non lo siano oggi. Si consideri la Grande Depressione e le implicazioni conseguenti all’incapacità delle economie di mercato del tempo di recuperare con le proprie forze, a causa del peso di una disoccupazione di lunga durata.

Ma, pur non trovandoci oggi in quella situazione, le condizioni della Grande Depressione non sono meno importanti per noi, perché è sempre più probabile che una disoccupazione di lungo periodo, entro i prossimi due anni, diventi un ostacolo analogo per la nostra ripresa economica.

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