Beznadějná nezaměstnanost

BERKELEY – Jakkoliv zle je na tom podle vašeho názoru dnešní světová ekonomika z hlediska hospodářského cyklu, je to jen jedna optika, jíž lze nazírat na svět. Pokud jde o globální průměrnou délku dožití, celkové světové zdraví, celkovou úroveň technologií, růstové vyhlídky v rozvíjejících se ekonomikách a globální distribuci příjmů, vypadá situace docela dobře, zatímco v jiných ohledech – například v oblasti globálního oteplování nebo domácí nerovnosti příjmů a jejích dopadů na sociální solidaritu zemí – se situace jeví jako špatná.

Dokonce i z hlediska proporcí hospodářského cyklu byly podmínky v minulosti mnohem horší než dnes. Vezměme si například velkou hospodářskou krizi a její dopady na tehdejší neschopnost tržních ekonomik zotavit se kvůli zátěži dlouhodobé nezaměstnanosti samy.

V této fázi sice ještě nejsme, ale velká hospodářská krize pro nás kvůli tomu není o nic méně relevantní – je totiž stále pravděpodobnější, že dlouhodobá nezaměstnanost se stane v příštích dvou letech podobnou brzdou zotavení jako tehdy.

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