Collection of globes

La nouvelle géoéconomie

COLOMBO, SRI LANKA – Du point de vue de l'économie mondiale, l'année dernière restera dans les mémoires, non seulement en raison de ses performances d'ensemble décevantes, mais aussi des profonds changements qui l'ont affecté - pour le mieux comme pour le pire.

On notera principalement l'accord de Paris sur le climat signé en décembre. En lui-même, cet accord est très insuffisant pour limiter le réchauffement climatique à 2° C au-dessus de sa valeur de l'ère préindustrielle, mais il constitue un signal : le monde bascule inexorablement vers une économie verte. Un jour pas si lointain, pour l'essentiel les énergies fossiles ne seront plus qu'un souvenir. Aujourd'hui si on investit dans le charbon, on le fait à ses risques et périls. Les investissements verts prenant de plus en plus d'importance, on peut espérer que ceux qui les financent vont contrebalancer les pressions de la puissante industrie charbonnière, prête à mettre la planète en danger au nom de ses intérêts à courte vue.

L'abandon progressif d'une économie à forte émission de carbone dans laquelle l'intérêt des industries du charbon, du gaz et du pétrole prédomine souvent, n'est que l'un des éléments du bouleversement qui affecte l'ordre géoéconomique mondial. Etant donné la part croissante de la Chine dans la production et la demande mondiale, de nombreux autres changements sont inévitables. La Nouvelle banque de développement lancée l'année dernière par les BRICS (le Brésil, l'Inde, la Chine et l'Afrique du Sud) est en passe de devenir la première institution financière internationale d'importance majeure créée par des pays émergents. Et en dépit des réticences américaines, la Banque asiatique d'investissement pour les infrastructures créée à l'initiative de la Chine va ouvrir ses portes ce mois-ci.

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