Avanzar renqueando y mal que bien

NEWPORT BEACH – Recientemente se reunieron en la sede de PIMCO en California colegas de todo el mundo para celebrar nuestro Foro Secular anual, en el que durante unos días dejamos atrás los asuntos más inmediatos y debatimos, en cambio, lo que los entre tres y cinco próximos años reservan a la economía mundial. La perspectiva es mundial, basada en las ideas de oradores exteriores, y está centrada en lo que es probable que ocurra, a diferencia de lo que debería ocurrir.

Según las proyecciones de los dos últimos Foros Seculares, después de la crisis financiera mundial la economía mundial no se reharía al modo cíclico tradicional, sino que afrontaba realineamientos multianuales de carácter tanto nacional como mundial. La economía mundial se curaría, pero de forma lenta e irregular, a medida que las economías avanzadas fueran arreglándoselas mal que bien y el más dinámico mundo de los países en ascenso fuera eliminando los desfases actuales de ingresos y riqueza.

Desde entonces la evolución de los acontecimientos se ha ajustado a esa caracterización. La recuperación del G-7 ha sido inhabitualmente lenta, pese a la adopción de unas medidas públicas de estímulo de una importancia sin precedentes (en particular en los Estados Unidos). A consecuencia de ello, el desempleo ha experimentado un gran aumento y ahora supera al de las economías en ascenso. Entretanto, los indicadores de déficit y deuda han empeorado, tanto absoluta como relativamente, en comparación con los de las economías en ascenso y la prima de riesgo de la deuda de las economías avanzadas supera ahora, por término medio, la de las economías en ascenso.

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