Gehumpel und Durchwurschteln

NEWPORT BEACH: Kolleginnen und Kollegen aus aller Welt sind jüngst in der PIMCO-Zentrale in Kalifornien zu unserem jährlichen Secular Forum zusammengekommen, wo wir ein paar Tage lang kurzfristige Fragen hinter uns lassen und stattdessen diskutieren, was die nächsten 3-5 Jahre der Weltwirtschaft bringen werden. Die Perspektive dabei ist global, beeinflusst durch die Einsichten außenstehender Gastredner, und im Mittelpunkt steht, was wahrscheinlich passieren wird, nicht, was passieren sollte.

Die beiden letzten Secular Forums gingen davon aus, dass sich die Weltwirtschaft nach der globalen Finanzkrise nicht in traditioneller, zyklischer Weise neu austarieren würde, sondern dass sie vor mehrjährigen Anpassungen von sowohl nationaler wie globaler Art stünde. Die Weltwirtschaft würde sich erholen, aber langsam und ungleichmäßig; die hoch entwickelten Volkswirtschaften würden sich durchwurschteln, während die dynamischeren Schwellenländer allmählich die Kluft beim Einkommen und Wohlstand überwinden würden.

Die bisherigen Entwicklungen stehen im Einklang mit dieser Charakterisierung. Die Erholung in den G7-Ländern ist bisher ungewöhnlich schwerfällig verlaufen, und dies ungeachtet großer und so nie dagewesener Konjunkturimpulse (insbesondere in den USA). Infolgedessen ist die Arbeitslosigkeit steil angestiegen und nun höher als in den Schwellenvolkswirtschaften. Zugleich haben sich die Kennziffern für Defizit und Verschuldung verschlechtert, und zwar sowohl absolut gesehen als auch im Vergleich zu den Schwellenvolkswirtschaften. Der durchschnittliche Risikoaufschlag für Schuldtitel der hoch entwickelten Länder übersteigt inzwischen den für Schwellenländer.

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