Призраки истории в Иране

Использование исторических аналогий для толкования настоящего и заманчиво, и опасно одновременно, потому что в точности история не повторяется никогда. Тем не менее, для понимания того, насколько затруднительно отреагировать на проблемы, вызванные нынешними ядерными амбициями Ирана и его антиизраильской навязчивой идеей, может оказаться полезно проанализировать три аналогии, которые используются чаще всего.

Некоторые сравнивают иранский режим с нацистской Германией. Другие полагают, что единственная полезная аналогия – это игры, связанные с равновесием сил в прежней Европе. А третьи объединяют два этих варианта, напоминая о «равновесии страха» во время «холодной войны». Иными словами, как относиться к Ирану: как к гитлеровской Германии 1938 года, Пруссии 1756 года или как к сталинскому Советскому Союзу?

В каждой аналогии есть рациональное зерно, но, конечно, ни одна не соответствует реальным проблемам, создаваемым Ираном. Кроме того, каждая из аналогий, если принимать ее всерьез, должна вести к конкретному плану действий, а сегодня до такого плана еще далеко.

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