当利率上升

美国剑桥—如今,长期利率极低,这是不可持续的,导致了债券和其他证券存在泡沫。当利率上升时——必将如此——泡沫就会破裂,这些证券的价格将下跌,持有者将受伤。由于银行和其他高杠杆金融机构都是这些证券的持有者,因此泡沫破灭可能导致破产和金融市场崩溃。

毫无疑问,美国长期国债的超低利率是当前金融资产错误定价的例子。十年期美国国债的名义利率还不到2%。由于通货膨胀率也在2%左右,因此实际利率是负的,这一点可以从十年期通胀保护国债(TIPS,其还本付息额须经通胀调整)上得到映证,十年期TIPS利率为-0.6%。

从历史上看,十年期美国国债的实际利率一直高于2%;因此,眼下约2%的利率低于历史平均水平。但历史利率是在财政赤字和联邦政府债务远比今天低的时期录得的。再过十年,预算赤字预计将达GDP的5%,而债务/GDP比率在过去五年中翻了一番且将继续上升,因此美国国债实际利率应该远比过去高。

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