Une nouvelle confrontation militaire au Moyen-Orient ?

Jérusalem – Conséquence d'une politique américaine mal inspirée, la menace d'une confrontation militaire supplémentaire plane tel un nuage noir sur le Moyen-Orient. Les ennemis des USA se sont renforcés, et l'Iran - bien que classée dans "l'axe du mal" - se retrouve catapulté en situation d'hégémonie au niveau régional, alors qu'il n'aurait jamais pu y parvenir de lui-même, et sûrement pas en un temps aussi court.

La rivalité latente entre l'Iran et Israël s'est ainsi transformée en une lutte ouverte pour la domination du Moyen-Orient. Il en résulte des alliances quelque peu surprenantes, si ce n'est bizarre : l'Iran, la Syrie, le Hezbollah, le Hamas et l'Irak soutenu par les USA et dominé par les chiites font face à Israël, à l'Arabie saoudite et à la plupart des autres pays arabes sunnites qui se sentent tous menacés par la montée en puissance de l'Iran.

Le risque d'une confrontation majeure est exacerbée par une série de facteurs : le prix durablement élevé du pétrole qui offre de nouvelles opportunités financières et politiques à l'Iran, la défaite de l'Occident dans la guerre par alliés régionaux interposés à Gaza et au Liban, l'échec du Conseil de sécurité qui n'a pas réussi à amener l'Iran à accepter ne serait-ce qu'une suspension temporaire de son programme nucléaire.

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