High Noon beim IWF

Auf den Sitzungen des Internationalen Währungsfonds (IWF) werden in diesem Monat in Washington die führenden Finanzminister und Zentralbanker der Welt zusammenkommen – an einem entscheidenden Kreuzweg der Weltwirtschaft.

Zunächst einmal: Die weltweite Spekulationsblase auf dem Häusermarkt ist im Platzen begriffen; nicht nur in den USA, sondern auch in vielen weiteren Ländern wie etwa im hoch bewerteten Spanien beginnen die Märkte einzufrieren. Darüber hinaus leiden insbesondere die europäischen Geldmärkte nach wie vor unter dem Trauma der schwärenden Kreditverknappung. Rekordstände bei den Lebensmittel- und Energiepreisen drücken im Verbund mit steil ansteigenden chinesischen Löhnen weltweit die Inflation in die Höhe. Und last, but not least: Der Produktivitätsboom in den USA verlangsamt sich.

Dieser kombinierte Druck wird es den Zentralbanken deutlich erschweren, die so genannte „Goldilocks-Wirtschaft“ (bei der Inflation und Wachstum „genau richtig“ sind) aufrecht zu erhalten. Zugleich wird die Außenwelt aufmerksam beobachten, was man von offizieller Seite gegen einen eventuellen weiteren Fall des Dollars ggf. zu tun plant. Zwar ist die Entwicklung der Wechselkurse bekanntermaßen unvorhersehbar, doch am ehesten ist zu erwarten, dass eine langsame Abwicklung des enormen US-Handelsdefizits den Dollar langfristig auf Abwärtskurs halten wird.

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