Wie sich Ägyptens Wirtschaft neu beleben lässt

NEWPORT BEACH – Rund zwei Jahre seit der Revolution in Ägypten befindet sich die Wirtschaft des Landes in einer Besorgnis erregenden Abwärtsspirale. Eine wachsende Zahl an Menschen innerhalb und außerhalb des Landes beginnen, der Revolution selbst die Schuld für die Entgleisung einer vormals wachsenden Volkswirtschaft zu geben, die dabei war, ihre Auslandsschulden zurückzuführen und über ein bequemes Kissen an Devisenreserven verfügte.

Der Ansatz, der Revolution für die aktuellen Probleme Ägyptens die Schuld zu geben, ist falsch, doch ist seine Attraktivität für manche angesichts der sich in den letzten Monaten stetig verschlechternden Wirtschaftslage des Landes verständlich. Das Wachstum ist blutleer, die Arbeitslosigkeit hoch, und die Neuinvestitionen sind dramatisch zurückgegangen – all dies kompliziert die bereits vorher schwierige finanzielle soziale und politische Lage. Es drohen daher zunehmend nicht einer, sonders gleich mehrere Teufelskreise.

Störungen des Binnenangebots heizen nun die Inflation an und verstärken die Probleme eines subventionsüberladenen nationalen Haushalts. Sie verschärfen zugleich die Schwäche bei der Fremdfinanzierung, was zu einem steilen Rückgang der Devisenreserven geführt hat, welcher nur in Ausnahmefällen durch Kredite und Einlagen aus dem Ausland gebremst wurde.

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