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El costo de exagerar los beneficios de la globalización

BRUSELAS – En el momento que los miembros de la élite financiera del mundo convergen en Washington, D.C. para asistir a las reuniones anuales del Fondo Monetario Internacional y el Banco Mundial, no pueden evitar escuchar otro llamamiento urgente para revertir el retroceso de la globalización. La debilitación del comercio, se supone, debe ser una tendencia adversa que necesita ser abordada. Sin embargo, la suposición es simplista, en el mejor de los casos.

El problema radica en la falta de comprensión de lo que impulsó el crecimiento del comercio en el transcurso de las últimas décadas. Es cierto, se han realizado esfuerzos para frenar la actual desaceleración. El más reciente informe sobre las Perspectivas de la Economía Mundial que publica el FMI dedica un capítulo entero a dichos esfuerzos.

Sin embargo, no se han identificado nuevas barreras significativas que impidan el comercio. Por el contrario, el FMI declara que alrededor de las tres cuartas partes de la desaceleración del crecimiento del comercio es el resultado de la “debilidad generalizada de la actividad económica”, especialmente de la inversión. El Fondo también afirma que “el ritmo menguante de la liberalización del comercio y el reciente repunte en el proteccionismo” han desempeñado un papel, aunque el mismo no es cuantificable.

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