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炒作全球化的代价

布鲁塞尔—在全世界金融精英汇聚华盛顿出席国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行年会之际,他们面临一个无法规避的呼声:扭转全球化的撤退。这个呼声说,贸易萎靡一定是一个不利趋势,必须予以纠正。但这个观点过于简单。

问题在于对是什么推动了过去几十年的贸易增长认识不足。平心而论,人们已经认识到了当前的贸易减速。IMF的最新世界经济展望用整整一章篇幅讨论这个问题。

但没有发现新的重大贸易壁垒。相反,IMF声称,贸易增长放缓有四分之三要归因于“经济活动总体萎靡”,特别是投资。IMF还认为,“贸易自由化速度的减缓以及最近保护主义的抬头”也是贸易增长放缓的原因,尽管未进行量化分析。

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