new york stock exchange floor traders Spencer Platt/Getty Images

美国国债利率为何一路走高?

发自剑桥——美国的长期利率已经抬头,并可能继续上涨。在过去20个月中十年期国债收益率已经翻了一番有多,从1.38%上升到2.94%。为什么会出现这种状况?

这1.56%的上涨大约一半是由于实际利率上升所致——该利率是根据通胀指数型十年期美国国债来计算的,后者的预期实际收益率已从2016年7月的0上涨至目前的0.82%。而利率上涨的另一半则反映出预期通胀率已经从1.38%上升到了2.12%。

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