Renminbi. Chinese currency.

La deuda oculta de los mercados emergentes

LIMA – Mientras presidentes de bancos centrales y ministros de finanzas de todo el planeta se congregan aquí en Perú para las reuniones anuales del Fondo Monetario Internacional, en el mundo emergente abundan síntomas de una creciente vulnerabilidad económica. Atrás quedaron los días en que los problemas de las economías avanzadas para recuperarse de la crisis de 2008 monopolizaban las reuniones del FMI. Ahora la discusión volvió a centrarse en las economías emergentes, que están en riesgo de sufrir sus propias crisis financieras.

Aunque no hay dos crisis financieras iguales, en todas tienden a repetirse ciertos síntomas reveladores: desaceleración significativa del crecimiento económico y las exportaciones, relajación del boom de precios de activos, aumento del déficit de cuenta corriente y fiscal, apalancamiento creciente y reducción (o directamente cambio de signo) del ingreso de capitales. Signos que, en mayor o menor grado, hoy aparecen en todas las economías emergentes.

El punto de inflexión fue en 2013, cuando la expectativa de aumento de tipos de interés en Estados Unidos y caída de precios de los commodities puso fin al boom de ingreso de capitales que durante varios años sostuvo el crecimiento de las economías emergentes. La reciente desaceleración de China, al generar turbulencia en los mercados globales de capitales y debilitar todavía más los precios de los commodities, magnificó el cambio de tendencia en todos los países emergentes.

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