Renminbi. Chinese currency.

O fardo da dívida oculta dos mercados emergentes

LIMA – Enquanto os banqueiros centrais e ministros das Finanças de todo o mundo se juntam para as reuniões anuais do Fundo Monetário Internacional, aqui no Peru, o mundo emergente está repleto de sintomas do aumento da vulnerabilidade económica. Longe vão os dias em que as reuniões do FMI eram monopolizadas pelos problemas das economias avançadas que se debatiam para recuperarem da crise financeira de 2008. Agora, a discussão voltou a direcionar-se para as economias emergentes, que enfrentam o risco das suas próprias crises financeiras.

Embora não haja duas crises financeiras idênticas, todas tendem a partilhar alguns sintomas reveladores: um abrandamento significativo do crescimento económico e das exportações, o desenrolar de booms nos preços dos ativos, o crescimento do défice da conta corrente e orçamental, o aumento da alavancagem e uma redução ou reversão definitiva nos fluxos de capital. Em graus diferentes, as economias emergentes apresentam hoje todos esses sintomas.

O ponto de viragem aconteceu em 2013, quando a expectativa de aumentar as taxas de juros nos Estados Unidos e de descer os preços das matérias-primas a nível global puseram fim a uma bonança na entrada de capitais que durante vários anos apoiou o crescimento das economias emergentes. O recente abrandamento da China, ao estimular a turbulência nos mercados globais de capital e ao enfraquecer ainda mais o preço das matérias-primas, agravou a crise em todo o mundo emergente.

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