Renminbi. Chinese currency.

Die versteckte Schuldenlast der Schwellenmärkte

LIMA – Während Notenbanker und Finanzminister aus aller Welt derzeit zur Jahrestagung des Internationalen Währungsfonds hier in Peru zusammenkommen, sind in den Schwellenländern die Anzeichen wachsender wirtschaftlicher Anfälligkeit allgegenwärtig. Vorbei sind die Tage, wo es bei den Sitzungen des IWF ausschließlich um die Probleme der hochentwickelten Volkswirtschaften bei der Bewältigung der Finanzkrise von 2008 ging. Inzwischen hat sich die Diskussion wieder auf die Schwellenländer verlagert, die sich dem Risiko eigener Finanzkrisen ausgesetzt sehen.

Zwar ist jede Finanzkrise anders, doch teilen alle tendenziell einige verräterische Symptome: eine deutliche Verlangsamung von Wirtschaftswachstum und Exporten, ein Ende der Höheflüge bei den Vermögenspreisen, wachsende Leistungsbilanz- und Haushaltsdefizite, eine steigende Verschuldung und eine Verringerung oder komplette Umkehr der Kapitalzuflüsse. Die Schwellenländer zeigen momentan im unterschiedlichen Maße alle diese Symptome.

Der Wendepunkt kam 2013, als die Erwartung steigender Zinsen in den USA und weltweit sinkende Rohstoffpreise dem durch langjährige Kapitalzuflüsse bewirkten Geldsegen, der das Wachstum in den Schwellenländern beflügelt hatte, ein Ende bereiteten. Der jüngste Abschwung in China hat den Konjunkturrückgang überall in den Schwellenländern verschärft, indem er Turbulenzen an den weltweiten Kapitalmärkten angeheizt und die Rohstoffpreise abgeschwächt hat.

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