Renminbi. Chinese currency.

Le poids de la dette cachée des marchés émergents

LIMA – Alors que les banquiers centraux et les ministres des Finances du monde entier se rassemblent ici au Pérou pour la réunion annuelle du Fonds monétaire international, le monde émergent présente des symptômes de vulnérabilité économique accrue. Le temps où les réunions du FMI étaient monopolisées par les problèmes des économies avancées luttant pour se remettre de la crise financière de 2008 est révolu. Aujourd’hui, la discussion est de nouveau orientée vers les économies émergentes, qui connaissent un risque de connaître des crises financières propres.

Bien qu'aucune crise financière ne soit identique, toutes tendent à partager certains symptômes révélateurs : un ralentissement significatif de la croissance économique et des exportations, le déroulement de booms des prix des actifs, des déficits courant et budgétaire de plus en plus importants, une hausse de l'endettement et une réduction ou une cessation pure et simple des entrées de capitaux. À des degrés divers, les économies émergentes présentent aujourd’hui l'ensemble de ces facteurs.

Le moment charnière est survenu en 2013, lorsque l'attente d'une hausse des taux d'intérêt aux États-Unis et la chute des prix mondiaux des matières premières a mis fin à une manne d’entrées de capitaux qui avait duré durant plusieurs années et soutenu la croissance des pays émergents. Le ralentissement récent de la Chine, en alimentant des turbulences sur les marchés financiers mondiaux et en affaiblissant encore davantage les prix des matières premières, a exacerbé la crise à travers le monde émergent.

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