Renminbi. Chinese currency.

De verborgen schuldenlast van de opkomende markten

LIMA – Nu de centrale bankiers en ministers van Financiën van over de hele wereld bijeenkomen voor de jaarvergadering van het Internationale Monetaire Fonds hier in Peru, wemelt het in de opkomende landen van de signalen die wijzen op toenemende economische kwetsbaarheid. Vervlogen zijn de dagen dat IMF-vergaderingen werden gemonopoliseerd door de problemen van geavanceerde economieën die moeite hebben de financiële crisis van 2008 te boven te komen. Nu gaat de discussie weer over de opkomende economieën, die met het risico van eigen financiële crises worden geconfronteerd.

Hoewel geen twee financiële crises gelijk zijn, hebben ze allemaal de neiging een paar veelbetekenende symptomen te delen: een aanzienlijke vertraging van de economische groei en de export, het leeglopen van zeepbellen op de aandelen- en huizenmarkten, stijgende tekorten op de betalingsbalansen en de begrotingen, toenemende schulden en een daling van of een regelrechte omkering van de kapitaalstromen. In verschillende mates leggen de opkomende economieën nu al deze symptomen aan de dag.

Het keerpunt kwam in 2013, toen de verwachting van een stijgende rente in de Verenigde Staten en dalende wereldwijde grondstoffenprijzen een einde maakten aan een jarenlange bloei van de kapitaalstromen die de groei van de opkomende economieën hadden gesteund. De recente groeivertraging van China heeft, door de turbulentie op de mondiale kapitaalmarkten aan te wakkeren en de grondstoffenprijzen nog verder te verzwakken, de inzinking in veel opkomende landen nog verder verscherpt.

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