Renminbi. Chinese currency.

新兴市场的隐藏债务负担

利马—在全球央行行长和财政部长齐聚秘鲁参加国际货币基金组织(IMF)年会之际,新兴世界呈现出各种经济脆弱性增加的症候。IMF会议被2008年金融危机后难以复苏的发达经济体问题主宰的日子一去不复返了。如今,讨论的焦点又回到了新兴经济体,它们面临着自身的金融危机风险。

没有两次金融危机是一样的,但所有金融危机都有一些相似的症状:经济增长和出口大幅放缓,资产价格繁荣退烧,经常项目和财政赤字增加,杠杆升高,资本流入趋势彻底反转,等等。如今,各新兴经济体以不同的程度呈现出所有这些症状。

转折点发生在2013年,美国升息和全球大宗商品价格下跌的预期结束了多年来支持新兴经济体增长的资本流入巨流。最近中国的减速进一步增加了全球资本市场动荡、压制了大宗商品价格,从而加剧了整个新兴世界的衰退。

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