Хезболла загнана в угол

БЕЙРУТ. Будущее Хезболлы, могущественной шиитской политической и военной организации в Ливане, никогда не казалось более неопределённым. Действительно, на фоне растущего напряжения с Израилем и возможных обвинительных приговоров её агентам в международном трибунале, расследующем убийство бывшего премьер-министра Рафика аль-Харири, Хезболла выглядит окружённой со всех сторон.

Самый непосредственный вопрос касается возможности новой войны между Израилем и Хезболлой, страхи которой раздуваются весь этот год сообщениями о передачах новых ракет Хезболле и периодическими угрозами со стороны Израиля. Те, кто предвидят войну, заявляют, что Израиль не желает терпеть хорошо вооруженную про-иранскую группировку на своих границах, в то время как напряжение вокруг иранской ядерной проблемы остаётся неразрешённым.

Хотя война и маловероятна в ближайшие месяцы, но если санкции против Ирана не принесут плодов к началу 2011 года, то Израиль может почувствовать необходимость действовать. Если бы он начал наносить удары по ядерным установкам Ирана, Хезболла, вероятно, тоже ввязалась бы в войну, и Израилю пришлось бы вступить в бой одновременно и с Хезболлой. Вместо этого Израиль мог бы начать превентивную войну против Хезболлы, чтобы лишить Иран ближайшей возможности нанесения ответного удара.

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