Le Hezbollah acculé

BEYROUTH – L’avenir du Hezbollah, la puissante organisation politique et paramilitaire Shiite du Liban, n’a jamais semblé aussi incertain. En effet, compte tenu des tensions croissantes avec Israël et de possibles mises en accusation de ses agents opérationnels par le Tribunal international chargé de l’enquête sur l’assassinat de l’ancien Premier ministre Rafic al-Hariri, le Hezbollah semble assailli de toutes parts.

L’éventualité d’une nouvelle guerre entre Israël et le Hezbollah constitue la question la plus pressante. Les craintes que cette éventualité a fait peser au cours de cette année sont nourries par des informations indiquant des transferts de missiles au Hezbollah et par des menaces intermittentes de la part d’Israël. Ceux qui prévoient une guerre prétendent qu’Israël ne peut tolérer une force de substitution iranienne lourdement armée à ses frontières tandis que les tensions avec l’Iran autour de la question nucléaire demeurent irrésolues.

Même si une guerre est peu probable dans les mois à venir, si les sanctions à l’encontre de l’Iran ne portent pas leurs fruits dès le début 2011, Israël pourrait se sentir obligé de passer à l’acte. S’il venait à lancer des attaques militaires contre les implantations nucléaires iraniennes, le Hezbollah interviendrait probablement et Israël devrait alors engager le Hezbollah en même temps. Israël pourrait aussi choisir d’entamer alternativement une guerre préventive contre le Hezbollah de façon à priver l’Iran d’une capacité de représailles.

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