Central banks Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

La falsa promesa del dinero helicóptero

LONDRES – Una de las preguntas más importantes con respecto a la economía mundial de hoy es si la política monetaria se está acercando al límite de su eficacia. La inflación se mantiene muy por debajo del objetivo en la eurozona y Japón, a pesar de una flexibilización cuantitativa (QE) agresiva y tasas de interés de referencia negativas, y tanto el euro como el yen se han apreciado frente al dólar estadounidense desde inicios de este año.

El problema con el debate es que el mismo se ha centrado exclusivamente en la eficacia de las políticas, sin tener en cuenta la necesidad de prudencia. La credibilidad e independencia de las autoridades monetarias son esenciales para la eficacia de sus políticas. Y, sin embargo, algunas de las propuestas que se presentan, hacen llamamientos a que los bancos centrales se descarríen aún más, ingresando en territorio desconocido, ampliando y extendiendo su desvío de un manejo cuidadoso del balance de resultados. Esto podría causar daños a su reputación que pudiesen ser difíciles de rectificar, con consecuencias financieras y económicas reales.

El impacto directo de la política monetaria no convencional es evidente y en gran medida llega en la manera esperada (con la excepción de la reciente apreciación del euro y el yen). La liquidez en los sistemas bancarios es amplia, y los costos de endeudamiento han disminuido, incluso tornándose negativos en el caso de algunos gobiernos.

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