Central banks Cameron Spencer/Getty Images

La fausse promesse de la monnaie hélicoptère

LONDRES – L'une des questions les plus importantes concernant l'économie mondiale aujourd'hui est de savoir si la politique monétaire approche la limite de son efficacité. L'inflation reste bien en deçà de sa cible dans la zone euro et au Japon, en dépit d’un assouplissement quantitatif (QE) agressif et de taux d'intérêt directeurs négatifs, et aussi bien l'euro que le yen se sont appréciés par rapport au dollar américain depuis le début de l'année.

Le problème avec le débat jusqu’ici est qu'il a mis l'accent uniquement sur l'efficacité des politiques, sans tenir compte de la nécessité de prudence. La crédibilité et l'indépendance des autorités monétaires sont essentielles à l'efficacité de leurs politiques. Et pourtant, quelques-unes des propositions en cours appellent les banques centrales à s'engager encore plus loin en territoire inconnu, s’écartant plus longtemps et plus fortement d’une gestion de bilan prudente. Cela pourrait causer des dommages à leur réputation qui pourraient être difficiles à corriger, avec de réelles des conséquences économiques et financières.

L'impact direct de la politique monétaire non conventionnelle est bien visible et en grande partie conforme aux attentes (à l'exception de la récente appréciation de l'euro et du yen). La liquidité dans les systèmes bancaires est ample et les coûts d'emprunt ont diminué, devenant même négatifs pour certains gouvernements.

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