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直升机撒钱的错误前景

伦敦—如今,全球经济关注的最主要的问题之一是货币政策是否正在接近效果极限。在欧元区和日本,尽管实施了大规模量化宽松和负政策利率,通货膨胀仍远低于目标,欧元和日元自今年年初以来对美元出现升值。

这一争论的问题是它至关注政策的效果,而没有考虑审慎的需要。货币当局的信誉和独立性是其货币政策效果的关键。但目前提出的一些方案让央行进一步迷失在未知领域,加剧和延长了它们与谨慎资产产负债表管理的背离。这可能造成信誉损害,而信誉损害可能难以挽回,带来真正的金融和经济后果。

非常规货币政策的直接影响显而易见,并且基本上符合预期(除了最近欧元和日元的升值)。银行系统流动性充足,借贷成本有所下降,一些政府的借贷成本甚至成为负数。

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