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El dinero helicóptero está en el aire

LONDRES – La política fiscal se encumbra nuevamente como la política de moda, después de años, incluso después de décadas, de haber estado aislada tras un velo. La razón para este retorno es simple: la recuperación incompleta de la crisis financiera mundial del año 2008.

Europa está en peor situación en este sentido: su PIB apenas ha crecido en los últimos cuatro años, y el PIB per cápita aún está en un nivel menor en comparación con el año 2007. Por otra parte, los pronósticos de crecimiento son sombríos. En julio, el Banco Central Europeo publicó un informe que sugiere que la brecha negativa de producción en la eurozona fue del 6%, es decir cuatro puntos porcentuales más alta de la brecha anticipada. “Una posible implicación de este hallazgo”, indica el BCE en sus conclusiones, “es que las políticas destinadas a estimular la demanda agregada (incluidas las políticas fiscales y monetarias) deben desempeñar un papel aún más importante en la combinación de políticas económicas”. Estas son palabras muy fuertes que provienen de un banco central.

La política fiscal ha sido indudablemente desactivada desde el año 2010, debido a que los gobiernos cabalgaban en bajada con déficits posguerra sin precedentes y ratios deuda-PIB que se incrementan rápidamente. La austeridad se tornó en la única alternativa.

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