为人民的量化宽松

牛津—接近年底,能源和商品价格下跌将欧元区年通胀率压至零以下几乎已成定局——远远低于欧洲央行近2%的目标。欧洲央行应该停止让误导性传统思维——以德国经济思想为核心——继续阻挠有效行动,而必须采取“为人民”的量化宽松——米尔顿·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)的“直升飞机撒钱”策略的改版——扭转通缩、让欧元区重回正轨。

事实表明,传统货币政策并没有对欧元区核心国家造成什么影响,美国式量化宽松也不会造成什么影响。这部分可归因于一个事实:对信用供给问题,欧元区(银行更加重要)资本市场的承重能力远远比不上美国。因此,降低政府、公司和资产支持债券的收益率没有什么效果。

与此同时,欧元汇率——货币政策仍能造成不同的领域——已无法进一步下降。首先,欧元区存在巨大的贸易盈余,欧元贬值会招致强烈的国际抵制。此外,美联储购买资产自持证券的能够刺激消费支出的机制——低按揭利率、方便的住房再融资、高房价和房屋权益收回——在欧洲都有所不同。

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