Spanish-revival-economic-recession-economics Ellie LoNardo/Flickr

La recuperación española

MÚNICH – Después de pasar dos años luchando por sobrevivir, parece que finalmente la economía de España salió de la sala de cuidados intensivos. Al sector bancario ya se lo da por “curado”, la demanda de bonos españoles se disparó y, una vez más, el país puede salir al mercado a buscar capitales a tipos de interés razonables. Pero todavía queda mucho por hacer para asegurar que la recuperación sea estable en el largo plazo.

Empecemos por la parte buena. La confianza de los inversores está en alza, de lo que da testimonio la reciente colocación de bonos públicos a diez años por 10.000 millones de euros (13.800 millones de dólares), que generó demanda por el cuádruple de esa cifra. Si bien las primas de riesgo por bonos a diez años siguen muy por encima de los niveles anteriores a la crisis, los rendimientos disminuyeron considerablemente, de 4% al principio de 2010 a 3,2% en la actualidad. Y cada vez son más los bancos y las empresas que vuelven al mercado de capitales.

Además, en el tercer trimestre del año pasado la economía española volvió a crecer, y va rumbo a un crecimiento aproximado del 1% este año. Si, como se espera, el año que viene se registra un crecimiento del PIB cercano al 2%, España superará el promedio de la eurozona y habrá creado un entorno propicio para una importante recuperación del empleo a largo plazo.

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