Spanish-revival-economic-recession-economics Ellie LoNardo/Flickr

Erholung in Spanien

MÜNCHEN – Nachdem sie die letzten zwei Jahre ums Überleben gekämpft hat, scheint die spanische Volkswirtschaft endlich die Intensivstation verlassen zu haben. Der Bankensektor gilt als „geheilt“; die Nachfrage nach spanischen Schuldverschreibungen ist steil gestiegen, und das Land kann wieder Kapital zu vernünftigem Zinsätzen am Markt aufnehmen. Doch um eine stabile langfristige Erholung sicherzustellen, bleibt viel zu tun.

Zuerst die gute Nachricht: Die Anleger sind dabei, wieder Vertrauen zu schöpfen. Beispielhaft ist dies an der jüngsten Platzierung zehnjähriger Staatsanleihen im Volumen von 10 Milliarden Euro erkennbar, die vierfach überzeichnet war. Obwohl die Risikoaufschläge zehnjähriger Anleihen noch immer deutlich über ihrem Niveau vor der Krise liegen, sind die Renditen erheblich gefallen – von 4% Anfang 2010 auf 3,2% heute. Und eine wachsende Anzahl Banken und Unternehmen kehrt an den Kapitalmarkt zurück.

Zudem wächst die spanische Volkswirtschaft seit dem dritten Quartal letzten Jahres wieder; in diesem Jahr dürfte ihr Wachstum rund 1% betragen. Falls das BIP im kommenden Jahr wie erwartet um ca. 2% wächst, wird Spanien damit über dem Durchschnitt der Eurozone liegen und ein Umfeld schaffen, das einem deutlichen langfristigen Beschäftigungszuwachs förderlich ist.

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