Spanish-revival-economic-recession-economics Ellie LoNardo/Flickr

Le renouveau de l’Espagne

MUNICH – Après avoir lutté pour la survie au cours des deux dernières années, l'économie de l'Espagne semble enfin être sortie des soins intensifs. Le secteur bancaire a été jugé « hors d’affaire »; la demande pour les obligations espagnoles a grimpé en flèche; et le pays peut à nouveau lever des capitaux à des taux d'intérêt raisonnables sur le marché. Mais il reste beaucoup de travail pour assurer une reprise stable à long terme.

Commençons par les bonnes nouvelles. La confiance des investisseurs est sur le chemin du retour, comme en témoigne le placement récent de 10 milliards d’euros (13,8 milliards de dollars) d'obligations à dix ans – qui a attiré quatre fois plus de souscriptions. Bien que les primes de risque sur les obligations à dix ans restent au-dessus des niveaux d'avant crise, les rendements ont considérablement diminué, passant de 4% au début 2010 à 3,2% aujourd'hui. Un nombre croissant de banques et de sociétés sont également de retour sur le marché des capitaux.

En outre, l'économie espagnole a renoué avec la croissance au troisième trimestre de l'année dernière et est en voie d’atteindre une croissance de plus ou moins 1% cette année. Si, comme prévu, le PIB augmente d'environ 2% l'an prochain, l'Espagne fera mieux que la moyenne de la zone euro et créera un environnement propice à des gains significatifs d'emploi à long terme.

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