Spanish-revival-economic-recession-economics Ellie LoNardo/Flickr

Španělské oživení

MNICHOV – Poté, co dva roky bojovala o život, se konečně zdá, že španělská ekonomika opustila jednotku intenzivní péče. Bankovní sektor byl označen za „vyléčený“, poptávka po španělských dluhopisech prudce vzrostla a země může opět získávat na trhu kapitál za rozumné úrokové sazby. Pro zajištění stabilního dlouhodobého zotavení však zbývá vykonat mnoho práce.

Nejprve dobré zprávy. Důvěra investorů se zlepšuje, příkladem čehož je nedávná emise desetiletých vládních dluhopisů v objemu 10 miliard eur, u níž poptávka čtyřnásobně přesáhla nabídku. Rizikové prémie u desetiletých dluhopisů sice zůstávají vysoko nad předkrizovou úrovní, avšak výnosy značně klesly, konkrétně z 4% na začátku roku 2010 na dnešních 3,2%. A stále vyšší počet bank a firem se vrací na kapitálový trh.

Španělská ekonomika se navíc ve třetím čtvrtletí loňského roku navrátila k růstu a má nakročeno k tomu, aby letos vzrostla zhruba o 1%. Pokud HDP v příštím roce poroste přibližně o 2%, jak se očekává, překoná Španělsko průměr v eurozóně a vytvoří vhodné prostředí ke značnému dlouhodobému růstu zaměstnanosti.

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