¿Ha comenzado la recuperación en los Estados Unidos?

CAMBRIDGE – Aunque la economía americana sigue deteriorándose, ya no reduce tan rápidamente como a comienzos de año o en las semanas posteriores al desplome de Lehman Brothers en septiembre de 2008. A ese respecto, resulta razonable decir que probablemente lo peor de la recesión ya haya quedado atrás.

Pero mi interpretación de los datos disponibles no coincide con la de quienes afirman que, en realidad, la economía está mejorando y que probablemente comience en los próximos meses una recuperación cíclica sostenida. Aunque el plan de estímulo de reducciones de impuestos y mayores desembolsos estatales aplicado al comienzo de este año dará un impulso temporal al crecimiento, no es probable que veamos el comienzo de una mejora sostenida hasta el año próximo, como muy pronto.

Los optimistas respaldan sus afirmaciones sobre una pronta recuperación señalando diversos datos estadísticos. Observan que está aumentando la actividad de la construcción, los precios de las viviendas están bajando más despacio, la renta personal disponible aumentó en el primer trimestre, el gasto de los consumidores está aumentando y el mercado laboral está mejorando.

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