Začalo v USA zotavení?

CAMBRIDGE – Ačkoliv americká ekonomika nadále klesá, její pád už není tak rychlý jako na počátku roku nebo v prvních týdnech po krachu Lehman Brothers v září 2008. V tomto smyslu je rozumné prohlásit, že nejhorší pokles už je pravděpodobně za námi.

Moje interpretace ukazatelů se však neshoduje s těmi, kdo tvrdí, že se stav ekonomiky skutečně zlepšuje a že v příštích měsících pravděpodobně započne trvalé cyklické zotavení. Ačkoliv stimulační balík daňových škrtů a zvýšených vládních výdajů, schválený počátkem letošního roku, poskytne růstu dočasný impulz, začátek trvalého vzestupu ekonomiky pravděpodobně nezažijeme dříve než napřesrok.

Optimisté opírají svá tvrzení o dřívějším zotavení o celou řadu statistických údajů. Poukazují na to, že stavebnictví je na vzestupu, ceny domů klesají pomaleji, disponibilní osobní příjmy se v prvním čtvrtletí zvýšily, roste spotřebitelská poptávka a trh práce zaznamenává zlepšení.

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