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khrushcheva129_Mikhail KlimentyevTASS via Getty Images_putin

普京失去魅力了？

Oct 28, 2020 Nina L. Khrushcheva

莫斯科—一年时间能带来多么大的变化。2019年秋天，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京似乎得意洋洋。西方世界的动荡——包括唐纳德·特朗普当选总统、英国脱欧闹剧和欧洲从移民到能源问题的纷争——使他攫取声誉，成为全球政治中一股稳定、强势的力量。现在，这样的稳定看似更像某种僵化，所产生的影响远远超越了俄罗斯边境的范畴。

2019年新冠危机通常被认为是一种反常现象—— 前所未有的危机需要前所未有的应对举措。但尽管这可能是事实，但它在俄罗斯和西方所引发的诸多挑战早在非典-新冠-2病毒出现之前就已经开始了。

在美国，疫情深化了经济不平等、加剧了种族关系紧张并导致政治进一步分化。在欧洲，它明确凸显了跨大西洋关系变得多不可靠。而在俄罗斯，它暴露了普京政权的惰性，从而使从本质上导致一场“稳定性危机”得以滋长。

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j. von Hettlingen Nov 1, 2020

Nina L. Khrushcheva is right: “What a difference a year makes.” This time last year Putin was at the peak of his power and glory, taking a gleeful delight at “upheaval” in the West - the Brexit drama, Trump’s impeachment, and “feuds” between EU member states over various issues. He proposed amending the constitution in January, allowing him to remain in power until 2036. A referendum was held in late June, amid a ravaging pandemic. Yet it was approved by 78% of Russian voters.
The author says, Putin used to have a “steady, assertive hand” in Ukraine and Syria, as well as other hotspots, like Libya and Central African Republic. Now “that steadiness has begun to look more like sclerosis, with implications that extend far beyond Russia’s borders.” Once a sower of discord abroad, working to destabilise the West for decades, Putin suddenly finds himself surrounded by instability in his backyard. In Russia’s self-proclaimed sphere of influence, Moscow is losing its clout.
Concurrent ongoing crises in Belarus, Central Asia and the Caucasus have blindsided the Kremlin, leaving it scrambling to shore up Russian interests in former Soviet republics and undermining Putin’s image as a master tactician on the world stage. In the past he could quell the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno Karabakh after four days. Now he is at loggerheads with Turkey’s Erdogan, who is backing Azerbaijan. Despite police violence, Belarusians continue protesting against Alexander Lukashenko, who refuses to step down. Putin’s support for the embattled president in Minsk sofar seems “detached and halfhearted.”
At home Putin is losing his grip, after tightening control on Russia. But Covid-19 has proven to be an even more formidable enemy, taking a toll on Russia’s economy. Putin’s approval ratings are plummeting, and the Kremlin’s longtime “bread and circuses” trick - combining “public fairs, free concerts, and national holidays – to keep the people sufficiently satisfied and distracted enough not to protest,” no longer works. Khabarovsk, a city close to the Chinese border in Siberia, has seen mass protests for months.
According to the author, Putin ”seems to have become similarly bored with most of the demands of leadership… for the better part of the last decade, he has been far less interested in solving domestic problems than in establishing Russia as an important, even fearsome,” global power. “But today, though there may be residual enthusiasm left for meddling in the US presidential election, sparring with the European Union over issues large and small seems less exciting.”
A popular uprising has overthrown a Kyrgyz government for the third time in less than two decades. But last month's events put Kyrgyzstan in real danger of sinking into an abyss of confusion and chaos. Former president, Almazbek Atambayev, was rearrested and is facing an array of charges, as the country's incumbent leader tries to consolidate power after unrest over a disputed election. Apparently “an existing security treaty obliges Russia to prevent the situation from breaking down,” while regional neighbours are worrying that it could spiral out of control.
According to the author, “the Kyrgyz government’s collapse may be offering Putin a preview of his own fate. To be sure, he rebounded from a similar slump once before, when he returned to the presidency in 2012. At the time, negative poll results served as a wake-up call, and a reinvigorated Putin played a few geopolitical cards – granting asylum to the former US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden, annexing Crimea, and intervening in Syria – that revived his reputation as a force to be reckoned with.”
Nevertheless, Putin’s geopolitical boon abroad “has not seemed to make much difference. The inertia and stagnation of his regime is palpable, and so is the encroaching shadow of irrelevance.” Although he claims to be conquering the pandemic, but he inhabits a virus-free bubble, rarely leaving home in order to protect himself. This is hardly a sign of strength.
Trump has recklessly held rallies, disregarding all precautionary measures, while disparaging his rival, Joe Biden, for wearing a mask. He, who had been infected by Covid-19, and bragged about his immune system, what would he say about Putin being holded up in his bunker-like fortress?
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