US Dollar

Un momento especial para los derechos especiales de giro

NUEVA YORK – En las recientes reuniones anuales del Fondo Monetario Internacional y el Banco Mundial, celebradas en Lima (Perú), se habló mucho de la debilidad de varias economías en ascenso y en desarrollo, pero el debate se centró muy poco en una causa fundamental: el sistema monetario mundial. Mucho más se hablara al respecto el próximo mes en la reunión de la Junta del FMI, si bien está por ver lo que éste hará.

El problema que afrontan las economías en ascenso y en desarrollo se debe a que sus entradas de capital tienen una marcada tónica procíclica. Cuando estaban aumentando rápidamente –sobre todo en comparación con las economías avanzadas–, atrajeron cantidades enormes de capital, pero, al multiplicarse los riesgos, el capital empezó a regresar a un país emisor de reservas: a saber, los Estados Unidos. Al fin y al cabo, los EE.UU. van a aumentar los tipos de interés y el dólar se ha apreciado frente a todas las divisas del mundo.

En el pasado, esa tónica ha propiciado en última instancia una corrección y el déficit en aumento de los EE.UU. por cuenta corriente acabó provocando una depreciación del dólar, pero esas correcciones –en 1979-1980, 1990-1991 y 2007-2008– han estado siempre relacionadas con una desaceleración o una crisis mundiales.

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