US Dollar

Il faut réformer le système de réserves mondiales

NEW-YORK – La faiblesse économique de plusieurs pays émergents ou en développement a constitué un thème majeur de la récente assemblée annuelle du FMI et de la Banque mondiale à Lima. Pourtant les discussions n'ont guère porté sur une cause essentielle de cette faiblesse : le système monétaire mondial. Le sujet sera débattu bien plus en profondeur le mois prochain lors du conseil d'administration du FMI, néanmoins on ne sait toujours pas ce qu'il va faire.

Le problème des pays émergents ou en développement tient à ce que le flux de capitaux entrants présente un caractère cyclique. Quand ces pays étaient en croissance rapide, notamment  comparés aux pays avancés, ils attiraient d'énormes volumes de capitaux. Mais les risques s'étant multipliés, les flux se sont inversés en direction d'un pays émetteur de monnaie de réserve - les USA. C'est compréhensible car leur devise s'est appréciée par rapport à presque toutes les autres et ils sont appelés à augmenter les taux d'intérêt.

Dans le passé, ce système aboutissait toujours à une correction, le déficit croissant des comptes courants américains conduisant finalement à une baisse du dollar. Mais ces corrections (en  1979-1980, 1990-1991 et 2007-2008) étaient toujours associées à un ralentissement ou à une crise mondiale.

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