Наступила ли уже глобальная стаг-дефляция?

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Приходящие самые последние макроэкономические новости из США, других государств с развитой, а также с развивающейся экономикой подтверждают тот факт, что мировая экономика столкнётся с мощной рецессией в 2009 году. В Соединённых Штатах начавшийся в декабре 2007 года экономический спад продлится по меньшей мере до декабря 2009 года – это самая продолжительная и глубокая рецессия в Штатах со времён Второй мировой войны с суммарным снижением ВВП, превышающим 5%.

Экономический кризис в других странах с развитой экономикой (еврозона, Соединённое Королевство, Европейский Союз, Канада, Япония, Австралия и Новая Зеландия) разразился во втором квартале 2008 года, перед тем как потрясения на финансовых рынках в сентябре и октябре усугубили мировое ограничение кредитования. Это сокращение с тех пор стало ещё жестчё.

Сейчас также наблюдается начало резкого снижения валютного курса на развивающихся рынках вследствие рецессии в странах с развитыми экономиками, снижение цен на товары и отток капитала, требующие увеличения дополнительных затрат на услуги. Безусловно, мир должен ожидать скорой рецессии в России и в Бразилии в 2009 году по причине низких товарных цен и резкого замедления темпов развития экономик Китая и Индии, что будет равнозначно резкому снижению валютных курсов с негативными последствиями (рост значительно меньше потенциального) для этих стран.

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