L’heure de la stag-déflation mondiale a sonné ?

NEW YORK – Les dernières évolutions macro-économiques aux Etats-Unis et dans d'autres économies avancées et marché émergents confirment que l'économie mondiale connaîtra une grave récession en 2009. Aux Etats-Unis, la récession a débuté en décembre 2007 et durera au moins jusqu'en décembre 2009 – soit la plus longue et profonde crise du pays depuis la Deuxième Guerre mondiale, avec une chute concomitante du PIB qui risque de dépasser 5 %.

Dans d'autres économies avancées (zone euro, Royaume-Uni, Union européenne, Canada, Japon, Australie et Nouvelle-Zélande), la récession a débuté au deuxième trimestre 2008, avant que les tumultes financiers de septembre et d’octobre n'aggravent le resserrement mondial du crédit. Depuis, la situation est encore plus désastreuse.

Par ailleurs, on observe aujourd’hui le début d'un atterrissage en catastrophe dans les marchés émergents, puisque la récession des économies avancées, la chute des prix des produits de base et la fuite de capital font des ravages sur la croissance. En effet, le monde devrait s'attendre à une prochaine récession en Russie et au Brésil en 2009, compte tenu du faible cours des produits de base et d'un net ralentissement en Chine et en Inde, qui sera aussi pour ces pays un atterrissage en catastrophe (avec une croissance bien en dessous de leur potentiel).

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