L’Amérique a-t-elle perdu son pouvoir d’attraction ?

Cambridge – Il semblerait que l’Amérique ait perdu de son assurance puisque même le président exprime sa crainte que la crise financière ne soit pire que la grande dépression des années 30. George Bush n’est pas le seul à s’inquiéter d’une aggravation de la situation, avant de voir le bout du tunnel. De plus en plus de personnalités du milieu des affaires commencent également à se demander si les Etats‑Unis seront capables de leur redresser prochainement leur économie.

Les conjoncturistes sont beaucoup plus optimistes : ils prévoient pour 2009 une croissance américaine aux alentours de -1,5 %, après une réduction similaire au deuxième semestre 2008. Cette récession pourrait être douloureuse, mais bien moins que la baisse de rendement de 10 à 15 % généralement associée aux récessions à grande échelle. Compte tenu de l’optimisme inopportun de la plupart des conjoncturistes ces derniers temps, on peut comprendre que le public se méfie de leurs pronostics.

Les prévisions conjoncturelles semblent néanmoins optimistes. Avec un système financier en mode survie, l’effondrement des prix de l’immobilier et la hausse du chômage, l’économie américaine paraît plus vulnérable qu’à aucun autre moment depuis les années 70, voire depuis la Deuxième Guerre mondiale.

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