美国已经失去了运气吗?

坎布里奇—你知道,当连总统也表示担心金融危机可能比1930年代的大萧条还要严重时,美国的自信心就动摇了。并不是乔治·布什一个人担心在事情变得更好之前将会变得糟糕得多。越来越多精明老练的商界人士也开始想知道美国能否很快恢复经济。

在2008年下半年美国经济出现大约1.5%的收缩之后,舆论预计2009年还将出现同样的负增长。而专业人士的预测要乐观得多。这将是是痛苦的衰退,但还远不是彻头彻尾的经济萧条,后者的标准是产量下滑10%至15%。当然,经济预测人士在最近的每一个转折时刻总是过于乐观,所以可以理解大众对他们的预测持怀疑态度。

而舆论的预测似乎 是乐观的。伴随着勉强支撑的金融体系,持续下跌的房产价格和上升的失业率,美国经济看起来比1970年代或许也是比二战以后的任何时刻都要脆弱。

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